Carbon Emission Calculation Scenario 6
CarbonEmission Calculation
Scenario6

Applying the logic of the Science paper to your projections take the CO2 emissions in 2020 from Scenario 5 and successively halve them each decade. What are your results (in MT CO2) for:
Accordingto Archer (2012), Kaya Identity can be used to forecasts theresulting emission of the CO_{2}inthe future. The Kaya identity is:
Impact= Population*Affluence*Energy Intensity*Carbon Intensity
a.2030
=½(in MT CO_{2of}2030)
=½ (431) = 215.5
b.2040
=½(in MT CO_{2of}2040)
=½ (290) = 145.0
c.2050
=½(in MT CO_{2of}2030)
=½ (234) = 117.0
B)Assume that the population, affluence and carbon intensity you usedin Scenario 5 remain the same, what would the Energy Intensity (inMJ/$GDP) have to be in order to meet that target in:
a.2030
Impact= Population*Affluence*Energy Intensity*Carbon Intensity
ThusEnergy Intensity =
EI= 215.5*100%/ (1.29%*1.97%*0.54%)
EI= 15703.54%
b.2040
EnergyIntensity =
145*100%= (1.29%*1.97%*0.54%)
=10566.19%
c.2050
EnergyIntensity =
EI= 117*100%/ (1.29%*1.97%*0.54%)
=8525.82%
C)What is the ratio of emissions in 2050 compared to Scenario 5?
Ratio= 117:234 = 0.5
=1:2
D)Use the Compound Annual Growth Rate equation to determine the growthrate in
EIneeded to meet the target (as before multiply by 100 so that 0.015would be 1.5% and entered as 1.5)
CAGR= [(85.26/157.04)^^{(1/20)] }–1
=~0.9699219 1
Answer= 0.03
E)What is the ratio of this growth rate to the AAGR for 20042013 youcalculated in the prior assignment?
Year 
EI 
2004 
7.59 
2005 
7.42 
2006 
7.15 
2007 
7.01 
2008 
6.88 
2009 
6.69 
2010 
6.52 
2011 
6.47 
2012 
6.24 
2013 
6.13 
20042013 CAGR= [( 7.59/ 6.13)^^{(1/10)}] – 1 = 0.02
Ratio= 0.03: 0.02
=3:2
Scenario2

Assume that the population, affluence and energy intensity you used in Scenario 5 remain the same, what would the Carbon Intensity (in kgCO2/GJ) have to be in order to meet that target in:

2030
CarbonIntensity =
=431/ (0.0129*0.0197*0.091)
=18637168.91
=~ 18637169

2040
CarbonIntensity =
=356/ (0.0129*0.0197*0.091)
=15394042.07
=~15394042

2050
CarbonIntensity =
=234/ (0.0129*0.0197*0.091)
=10118555.74
=~10118556
B)Use the Compound Annual Growth Rate equation to determine the growthrate in
CIneeded to meet the target (as before multiply by 100 so that 0.015would be 1.5% and entered as 1.5)
CAGR= [(10118556/ ~ 18637169)^ ^{(1/30)}] – 1
=0.02
C)What is the ratio of this growth rate to the AAGR for 20042013 youcalculated inthe prior assignment?
2004 
49.29 
2005 
48.75 
2006 
48.09 
2007 
48.31 
2008 
48.56 
2009 
47.68 
2010 
46.80 
2011 
46.21 
2012 
45.59 
2013 
44.87 
CAGR= [(44.87/ 49.29)^^{(1/10)}]1 = 9.35
Ratio= 0.02: 9.35
=2:935
Questionsto Ponder

How important is it to get the data “right”? How big a difference did it make using the past decade versus the past few decades in making your projections? How big a difference did it make to use more realistic population and GDP projections? Is the past a good guide to the future?
Rightdata is essential as it makes projections relevant and correct. Usingthe past decade data result to a big variance in terms of ratio ascompared to the result of the past few decades. Also, GDP projectionand the realistic population do not vary so much.

If we need to set ambitious targets to meet the goal of avoiding dangerous anthropogenic climate change what are our options for change? In this assignment I did not have you change population or affluence projections. Is that reasonable? Can we expect to or want to (as a society) develop policies that further limit population growth or economic growth? If not, are the necessary changes in energy intensity or carbon intensity reasonable? How much effort do you think we should place on improving energy efficiency versus carbon intensity?
Itis necessary to regulate the carbon intensity to avoid dangerousanthropogenic climate. Also, it is necessary for the society todevelop policies which limit population change. However, economicgrowth can be regulated to ensure that its growth does not interferewith the impact of the CO_{2}impact.
References
Topof Form
Archer,D. (2012). Globalwarming: Understanding the forecast.Hoboken, N.J: John Wiley & Sons.
Bottomof Form
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